Archaeoclimatic Modeling
Our models use features such as the Milankovitch Cycle and influences on the Earth's albedo to calculate large scale climate dynamics, while synoptic climatology is used to estimate the local climate of individual locations. Modern local average weather depends non-linearly on the control features and the topography, soils, and water bodies relative to the place. These local factors affecting climate are already reflected in the modern climatic averages. We use the 1961-1990 Climate Normal data for each local model. Thus we determine the modern reaction to the control features to estimate the past reaction at that same locale. Each local reconstruction is thus calibrated for a specific place and explains >98% of the observed variance in the local weather. We are now able to model past climate on a local scale for the past 16,000 calendar years.

These models are compared to stratified samples of pollen, phytoliths, and microscopic charcoal from your management area.The comparison of a macrophysical climate model to stratified pollen and microscopic charcoal samples allows construction of a much more complete picture of past environmental conditions and landscape use. This information enhances the effectiveness of research planning and resource management.